0. Energy: World Oil Production and nuclear energy

File:Golfech NPP cropped.jpg

A nuclear power plant in France

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World Oil Production

Crude oil & lease condensate: Peak in 2005 at 72.75mbd

Natural gas plant liquids: Peak in 2008 at 73.79mbd

Combined total: Peak in 2008 at 81.73mbd

Note: mbd = million barrels per day

***

Note: The peak is relatively flat aproximately from 2005 to 2009

***

Note:  When world oil and natural gas production slide down Hubbert slope, to some critical point, World War 3 has a very good chance to break out.  So, one may ask what is the critical point?  It’s hard to say. A good educated guess would place it at 1/3 from the peak point. Because 33% reduction in world oil production would mean that the world economy would have to be shrunk by that much as well.

One more interesting point is this: The first two world wars occured/started in Europe.  This time, it will occur in Asia.  And Communist China is one of the prime variables forming world war 3 equation. 

Perhaps, there is another point that is even more interesting: How long does it take the world to get to that critical point from the peak point (year 2008) ?  A good guess would be in 20 years.  And a more certain answer would be in 30 years time.

hoangkybactien _3/29/2010

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Note: Mexico’s Cantarell is the largest oil field in the Western hemisphere

Mexico-Catarell Crashing

by Tom Whipple, Peak Oil Review [2007 January 29]

“On Friday PEMEX made it official. Production from Mexico’s largest oilfield, Cantarell, fell from 1.99 million b/d in January 2006 to 1.44 million b/d in December. The company’s overall crude production in December was 2.98 million b/d, falling below 3 million barrels for the first time in six years. Nearly a year ago, a leaked internal PEMEX study forecast that under the best-case scenario Cantarell’s production would fall to 1.54 million barrels a day by the end of 2006 — almost exactly what happened.”

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7/23/2010

The peak oil crisis: thinking about China

by Tom Whipple

Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency announced that China was now the world’s largest consumer of energy (oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear power and renewables), surpassing the U.S. for the first time.

With 1.3 billion people, China is unlikely to reach current U.S. energy consumption per capita for some time, if ever, but to double energy consumption in the last ten years is still an impressive achievement. But keep in mind that the average American is still consuming five times as much energy each year as the average Chinese. China had not been expected to overtake the US for another five years, but the global recession reduced U.S. consumption and China’s strong economic rebound in the last sent Beijing’s consumption soaring.

Interestingly, Chinese officials immediately denied that the IEA’s announcement was correct. This is not because the Chinese do not want to be the world’s number one energy consumer, but because they do not want to be known as the number one polluter and contributor to global warming emissions. As global temperatures set new records, Beijing would rather be thought of as the leader in efficient use of energy and developer of renewable technologies, rather than as a giant pollutant-belching smokestack, which may be closer to the truth for much of China’s energy comes from coal.

The key issue for the next few years is whether China can keep up its frenetic growth. Earlier this year, after a heavy dose of financial stimulus and much loose lending, China’s GDP was growing at an annual rate close to 12 percent. Keep in mind that China’s definition of GDP growth does not exactly square with what is used in other countries. So while China’s economic growth may be spectacular by OECD standards, it may not be quite that spectacular. When inflationary pressures appeared last spring, Beijing tightened up on lending which seems to have cut inflation, taken a point or two off of GDP growth, and cut back on industrial production.

Whether Beijing’s formula of mixed capitalism and state control of key enterprises will prove to be durable over the long run has yet to be seen. What we do know, however, is that a few more years of surging energy consumption will soon be playing havoc with energy prices around the world. Even with GDP growth down to 8 or 10 percent each year, China seems to be on course to import at least an additional 500,000 barrels a day (b/d) on top of the 5.4 million b/d imported in June. Beijing’s oil imports have doubled in the last five years. Given that other Asian states are increasing imports and the Gulf oil exporters are consuming increasing amounts of oil, something has got to give. That of course will be prices.

There are a few dark clouds on Beijing’s horizon, however. Labor unrest is growing and the realities of China’s decades of neglect for the environment are closing in. Natural and man-made disasters — droughts, floods, hurricanes, melting glaciers, polluted air and water, falling aquifers – are accumulating at an alarming pace. Someday these problems, especially when they cause persistent food shortages, are going to reach the point where they impact the nation’s ability to sustain any kind of economic growth. However, the consequences of these problems do not seem imminent.

Like everyone else, Beijing is about to fall victim to rapidly increasing oil prices, and eventually, shortages brought about by peaking world oil production. The government clearly recognizes this and has embarked on multiple programs to increase the efficiency of its energy use, increase production of renewable energy, and to buy up at top dollar as much foreign coal, oil and natural gas production as anybody is willing to sell them. This will in turn prove to be a major problem for the oil importing OECD countries that will see their sources of foreign oil disappear more quickly than anticipated.

For now the Chinese economic juggernaut appears ready to keep moving along right into the age of oil depletion. While the country has social and environmental issues none appear to be a hindrance to continued rapid economic development for the immediate future. With massive reserves of foreign exchange, Beijing should be in best position of any major oil importers to weather at least the initial stages of much higher oil prices.

The next few years are likely to be critical for should China keep increasing its imports of oil and even coal at anywhere close to their current rates of increase, major price spikes in the world’s oil markets seem inevitable. The U.S. and OECD may not do too well economically in the next few years, but their oil and coal consumption are unlikely to take more than minor dips. These dips in consumption are unlikely to be enough to offset increasing oil consumption in Asia and the oil exporting nations.

China’s new status as the world’s number one energy consumer may or may not last long, but it serves as a reminder that there are serious troubles ahead.

***

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March 14, 2011 |

Japan Teeters on the Edge of Nuclear Meltdown, While U.S. and Other Countries Work to Build More Nuclear Reactors

You’d think the world would have wised up by now to the risks of nuclear power, but that’s not the case in our country and many others.

*

On Friday, Japan was hit by a massive earthquake initially measured to be 8.9 and now upgraded to 9.0 on the Richter scale. One of the largest quakes ever measured in history, its epicenter lay just northeast of Japan. The quake unleashed a massive tsunami. Together, the quake and tsunami have claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Then, on Saturday an explosion occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Located in northeastern Japan, near the quake’s epicenter, the plant has six boiling water reactors. The first blast occurred at Fukushima No. 1. In order to keep the reactor cool, the system needs a regular influx of water. This water system, in turn, requires electricity. The generators were wiped out by the tsunami. Replacement generators were delivered but their plugs were incompatible with those of the plant.

Desperate attempts were made to keep the reactor’s core cool by drawing on sea water. If the core is not kept cool, it can melt through the containment wall, causing a meltdown and allowing radiation to leak. (For more about the structure of the reactor, see an image of the Fukushima reactor’s design.)

Earlier on Monday, an explosion took place at reactor No. 3, whose core officials are now also struggling to keep cool. Then, early Tuesday an explosion was reported at No. 2. “Government officials admitted that it was ‘highly likely’ the fuel rods in three separate reactors had started to melt despite repeated efforts to cool them with sea water,” reported Gordon Rayner and Martin Evans for the Telegraph. “Safety officials said they could not rule out a full meltdown as workers struggled to keep temperatures under control in the cores of the reactors.”

Japan has formally called on the international community for assistance to address the problem.

As a result of Friday’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan, leaders worldwide are rethinking their nuclear energy policy.

While some are reconsidering their safety mechanisms, others are radically scaling back. China and Russia, however, are considering building new reactors.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 442 nuclear power plants are currently in operation.

The largest consumers of nuclear energy are — in order of megawatts consumed — the U.S., France, Japan, Russia and Germany, followed closely by South Korea, Canada, the Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Sweden.

But as growing economies are building new plants, these rankings will soon change. Given plants under construction, the biggest consumers are set to be: China, Russia, South Korea, India, Japan, Bulgaria, Ukraine, France, Finland, Brazil and the U.S.

Here’s a quick overview of the state of nuclear energy worldwide, focusing on its biggest consumers:

China
Russia
India

***

France
Germany
Switzerland:
U.S

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the U.S.’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission posted a short statement stating, “NRC’s rigorous safety regulations ensure that U.S. nuclear facilities are designed to withstand tsunamis, earthquakes and other hazards.”

Yet as Christian Parenti reports over at the Nation, of the U.S.’s 103 nuclear reactors, 23 are of the same G.E. design as the Fukushima reactor No. 1. Furthermore, nuclear reactors in the U.S. are also located on faultlines, particularly the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant near the San Andreas fault and the San Onofre nuclear generating station in California.

Parenti calls attention to the “overlooked yet very real campaign to relicense and extend by 50 percent the operation of our rickety existing fleet of reactors.”

It remains to be seen what the implications of the Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown are for U.S. energy policy. But the recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the unfolding GE nuclear reactor melting down in Japan may prompt people to begin demanding a more concerted effort to shift from our dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear, to clean and safe sources of energy like wind and solar.

Tina Gerhardt is an academic and journalist whose writing has app

***

 .: The U.S. administration had been embracing nuclear energy as a solution to rising energy costs. President Obama’s State of the Union proposed ramped nuclear energy with $36 billion in Department of Energy loans set aside for the construction of up to 20 new nuclear power plants. Just a few days prior to his State of the Union, President Obama announced G.E. CEO Jeffrey Immelt would be newly appointed as chairman of his outside panel of economic advisers, succeeding former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker. The reactors affected in Japan are U.S.-made, produced by G.E. The Swiss government announced that it has suspended plans to build new atomic energy reactors. Minister for Environment, Transportation, Energy and Communications Doris Leuthard stated that current plants would be assessed for safety before decisions are made about new plants. Switzerland has five nuclear power plants, which account for 40 percent of its energy needs.: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that she is reconsidering a moratorium on Germany’s nuclear power plants. Last fall, Merkel announced that nuclear power plants would be extended by 12 years on average. In response, huge demonstrations took place. In 2000, the previous coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party, announced a decision to phase out nuclear power plants by 2020. On Saturday, 60,000 protesters again demonstrated against nuclear energy, forming a 28-mile human chain from the city of Stuttgart to the Neckarwestheim nuclear power plant. Both the city and the plant are located in one of the two states where Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party faces elections on March 27.: While the EU has called for a complete rethink of its nuclear energy policy, announcing an emergency meeting with the International Atomic Energy Association next week, its largest consumer of nuclear energy, France, has thus far not taken a public position as a result of crisis in Japan. France derives 75 percent of its energy from nuclear power.: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced Monday that all of India’s nuclear reactors will be proofed for security, particularly with regard to earthquakes and tsunamis. India has over 20 nuclear power plants, the majority of which are along its coast.: According to the Interfax news agency, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin stated on Monday that Russia would continue with construction of 20 planned nuclear power plants. Russia is currently ramping nuclear energy from 16 percent to 33 percent of the overall energy budget. Russia has a vexed relationship to nuclear energy as a result of the nuclear meltdown in 1986 in Chernobyl, located in what was then the Soviet Union and is now the Ukraine.: On Monday, China — the biggest consumer of energy worldwide but currently still well behind other nations in the amount of megawatts of energy drawn from nuclear power — announced its continued commitment to nuclear energy. To date, China has 13 nuclear reactors. A further 27 new reactors are currently under construction and another 50 plants are planned. 

* (con’t)

On Friday, Japan was hit by a massive earthquake initially measured to be 8.9 and now upgraded to 9.0 on the Richter scale. One of the largest quakes ever measured in history, its epicenter lay just northeast of Japan. The quake unleashed a massive tsunami. Together, the quake and tsunami have claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Then, on Saturday an explosion occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Located in northeastern Japan, near the quake’s epicenter, the plant has six boiling water reactors. The first blast occurred at Fukushima No. 1. In order to keep the reactor cool, the system needs a regular influx of water. This water system, in turn, requires electricity. The generators were wiped out by the tsunami. Replacement generators were delivered but their plugs were incompatible with those of the plant.

Desperate attempts were made to keep the reactor’s core cool by drawing on sea water. If the core is not kept cool, it can melt through the containment wall, causing a meltdown and allowing radiation to leak. (For more about the structure of the reactor, see an image of the Fukushima reactor’s design.)

Earlier on Monday, an explosion took place at reactor No. 3, whose core officials are now also struggling to keep cool. Then, early Tuesday an explosion was reported at No. 2. “Government officials admitted that it was ‘highly likely’ the fuel rods in three separate reactors had started to melt despite repeated efforts to cool them with sea water,” reported Gordon Rayner and Martin Evans for the Telegraph. “Safety officials said they could not rule out a full meltdown as workers struggled to keep temperatures under control in the cores of the reactors.”

Japan has formally called on the international community for assistance to address the problem.

As a result of Friday’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan, leaders worldwide are rethinking their nuclear energy policy.

While some are reconsidering their safety mechanisms, others are radically scaling back. China and Russia, however, are considering building new reactors.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 442 nuclear power plants are currently in operation.

The largest consumers of nuclear energy are — in order of megawatts consumed — the U.S., France, Japan, Russia and Germany, followed closely by South Korea, Canada, the Ukraine, the United Kingdom and Sweden.

But as growing economies are building new plants, these rankings will soon change. Given plants under construction, the biggest consumers are set to be: China, Russia, South Korea, India, Japan, Bulgaria, Ukraine, France, Finland, Brazil and the U.S.

Here’s a quick overview of the state of nuclear energy worldwide, focusing on its biggest consumers:

China
: On Monday, China — the biggest consumer of energy worldwide but currently still well behind other nations in the amount of megawatts of energy drawn from nuclear power — announced its continued commitment to nuclear energy. To date, China has 13 nuclear reactors. A further 27 new reactors are currently under construction and another 50 plants are planned.
Russia
: According to the Interfax news agency, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin stated on Monday that Russia would continue with construction of 20 planned nuclear power plants. Russia is currently ramping nuclear energy from 16 percent to 33 percent of the overall energy budget. Russia has a vexed relationship to nuclear energy as a result of the nuclear meltdown in 1986 in Chernobyl, located in what was then the Soviet Union and is now the Ukraine.
India
: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced Monday that all of India’s nuclear reactors will be proofed for security, particularly with regard to earthquakes and tsunamis. India has over 20 nuclear power plants, the majority of which are along its coast.

***

France
: While the EU has called for a complete rethink of its nuclear energy policy, announcing an emergency meeting with the International Atomic Energy Association next week, its largest consumer of nuclear energy, France, has thus far not taken a public position as a result of crisis in Japan. France derives 75 percent of its energy from nuclear power.
Germany
: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that she is reconsidering a moratorium on Germany’s nuclear power plants. Last fall, Merkel announced that nuclear power plants would be extended by 12 years on average. In response, huge demonstrations took place. In 2000, the previous coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party, announced a decision to phase out nuclear power plants by 2020. On Saturday, 60,000 protesters again demonstrated against nuclear energy, forming a 28-mile human chain from the city of Stuttgart to the Neckarwestheim nuclear power plant. Both the city and the plant are located in one of the two states where Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party faces elections on March 27.
Switzerland:
The Swiss government announced that it has suspended plans to build new atomic energy reactors. Minister for Environment, Transportation, Energy and Communications Doris Leuthard stated that current plants would be assessed for safety before decisions are made about new plants. Switzerland has five nuclear power plants, which account for 40 percent of its energy needs.
U.S
.: The U.S. administration had been embracing nuclear energy as a solution to rising energy costs. President Obama’s State of the Union proposed ramped nuclear energy with $36 billion in Department of Energy loans set aside for the construction of up to 20 new nuclear power plants. Just a few days prior to his State of the Union, President Obama announced G.E. CEO Jeffrey Immelt would be newly appointed as chairman of his outside panel of economic advisers, succeeding former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker. The reactors affected in Japan are U.S.-made, produced by G.E.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, the U.S.’s Nuclear Regulatory Commission posted a short statement stating, “NRC’s rigorous safety regulations ensure that U.S. nuclear facilities are designed to withstand tsunamis, earthquakes and other hazards.”

Yet as Christian Parenti reports over at the Nation, of the U.S.’s 103 nuclear reactors, 23 are of the same G.E. design as the Fukushima reactor No. 1. Furthermore, nuclear reactors in the U.S. are also located on faultlines, particularly the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant near the San Andreas fault and the San Onofre nuclear generating station in California.

Parenti calls attention to the “overlooked yet very real campaign to relicense and extend by 50 percent the operation of our rickety existing fleet of reactors.”

It remains to be seen what the implications of the Japan earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown are for U.S. energy policy. But the recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the unfolding GE nuclear reactor melting down in Japan may prompt people to begin demanding a more concerted effort to shift from our dependence on fossil fuels and nuclear, to clean and safe sources of energy like wind and solar.

Tina Gerhardt is an academic and journalist whose writing has app

***

Why are you paying more for gas?

Before you leave, remember that number – 20 years.  In 20 years we will be down, down there!  The brighting sun is setting on us -the oil civilization!!!

***

7/08/2011

T. Boone Pickens Says Peak Oil Is Already

Here & Oil Going To $300

 

 

Peak Oil & Oil Research: http://TurnKeyOil.com
“All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.” – William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005

“It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.” – Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008

T. Boone Pickens on CNBC Discussing Peak Oil on 5/20/2008 Original Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jngHfYFs9L8

Originally Aired on CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15907487/

5 Comments on “T. Boone Pickens Says Peak Oil Is Already Here & Oil Going To $300”

  • Dusko on Fri, 8th Jul 2011 3:32 pm 
     

    Good Luck T Boone! Wiring all of those windmills requires vast amounts of copper. Copper theft is on the rise. In the future we won’t be able to secure power lines from one city to another let alone nationwide power grids. The dark age is upon us and gasoline, copper and other raw material theft is the new normal.

    Don’t forget, who’s going to invest in all of those natural gas filling stations?

 
  • CXGZ61 on Fri, 8th Jul 2011 4:17 pm 
     

    Pickens is correct. He has natural gas holdings that will never end.

 
  • CXGZ61 on Fri, 8th Jul 2011 4:18 pm 
     

    General Motors announced a natural gas car and a plan to build a NG distribution infrastructure the othe day.

 
  • Kenz300 on Fri, 8th Jul 2011 5:36 pm 
     

    The price of oil will continue to rise. The transition to electric, flex-fuel, hybrid and CNG vehicles has begun. 40 MPG is better than 20 MPG. As the price of oil rises we will all use energy more wisely and we will conserve more. We will walk a little more, take fewer trips in the car, get the bicycle out of the garage and use public transportation a little more. It is time to transition to safe, clean alternative energy. Second generation biofuels made from algae, cellulose and waste will become a bigger part of the fuel supply.

 
  • Ian Cooper on Fri, 8th Jul 2011 7:39 pm 
     

    Pickens may be right, but let’s not forget he has a dog in this fight. It’s in his interest to say that the price of oil will skyrocket.

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