1.Watch: Global vs. regional average temperatures!

April 03, 2010

A Pitfall In Using Global Average Temperature!

by hoangkybactien

It seems every scientist and everyone in the world likes to use global average temperatures as a mean to measure global warming and consequences, such as hurricanes, melting polar ices and glaciers, sand storms, etc…, the high average temperatures may cause. 

However, this kind of perception inherently is not as close to reality as one may wish to see.  In other words, this kind of view point is not accurate for use in predicting or pinpointing  the causes of environmental collapse.   For example, imagine a 1,000 square-foot room in which there is a small stove placed at a quarter of the length of the room.  In every 100 square-foot area in the room there is one thermometer to gage the temperatures at that particular location of the room.  Thus, the room’s average temperature is the sum of the ten thermometer readings divided by ten.  And while this average temperature number may be low, the readings from those thermometers nearer to the stove will certainly be higher than those readings from faraway ones. 

Remember:  Three quarters of the Earth’s surface is covered with water.  And thus, there is essentially no heat source (human population) in these areas.  As such, there must be infinitely large amounts of heat, generated by human activities on the remaining one quarter of the Earth’s surface, necessary in order to cause a little increase in the global average temperature.  And the pitfall lies in this:  Before humans can finish doing the calculation on global average temperature, the human generated heat has already melted the glaciers, and the damage has already been done either partly or fully!  Stated differently, it’s too late!

The same principle works in the case of a population and geographical regions surrounding it.  In this case, the stove in the above example resembles the population and the room resembles the surrounding regions/environments. 

It would be more accurate to use contour average temperatures.  The concept is simple: draw a circle around a city or metropolitan area.  This area is defined as a heat source (a stove). Monitor its average temperatures.  Draw another concentric but larger circle of, say, a radius two times the radius of the heat source circle.  Monitor its average temperature…. The process is continued onward to, say, a radius of 1,000km or 2,000km depending on resources available to carry out such a monitoring system. The key thing is all readings must be done in synchronization in order to detect the pattern of heat-flow.

The author believes that China’s industrialization and urbanization, especially those in the cities of Lanzhou (Gansu province), Xining (Qinghai province), Chengdu and Chongqing (Sichuan province), and Kunming (Yunnan province)  have the most direct and destructive impact on Tibet-Qinghai plateau’s glaciers.  Of course,China’s whole economic engine contributes to this effect as well. 

The author also believes that there is a way to effectively reduce the problem of shrinking glaciers, but it would be politically impossible for the CCP to carry  it out!  The solution lies in the principle of the “law of causes and effects” which means if causes are not created, neither are the effects! 

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http://sites.asiasociety.org/chinagreen/disappearing-glaciers-on-plateau-1/

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China Communist Party’s Suicidal Game:  GDP and Promotion!

Must_see_video clips: The Environmental Cost of China’s Growth

and,

A CBS Report: Chinese economic growth and pollution

and,

BBC News – China’s Grime Belt Air Pollution Extreme

and,

BBC News – China among worst polluters 28.01.07

and,

Beijing Global Warming

and,

Beijing – China

_oOo_

BEIJING, Dec. 18, 2010 (Xinhuanet) — The Yulong Snow Mountain at the edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau sees a rapid glacier melting resulting from global warming, according to the Los Angeles Times Tuesday.

He Yuanqing, a leading glacier expert in China, found that the mountain’s largest glacier of Baishui No. 1 has shrunk about 275 yards (about 247 m) since 1982.

He noted that at this rate, the glaciers will possibly disappear completely over the next few decades.

Photo shows a distant view of the Yulong Snow Mountain at the edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. (Photo Source: china.com.cn)

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Visitors enjoy sightseeing at the foot of the Mingyong Glacier on the Kawadgarbo Peak of Meili Mountain in Shangri-la County, Deqen Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, southwest China’s Yunnan Province

Plateaus are the most sensitive areas to the climate change. The tongue of the Mingyong Glacier on the Kawadgarbo Peak of Meili Snow Mountain in Shangri-la Tibetan County has retreated 1.5 miles, according to the photos taken by scientists recently.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/18/content_12665622.htm

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Rongbuk Glacier in the Himalayan Range in southern Tibet is 26 kilometers long and 120 meters thick on average. Two large tributary glaciers¨Cthe East and West Rongbuk Glaciers flow into the main glacier. As the Rongbuk Glacier moves north, Rongbuk Valley is formed. (Photo: Global Times)
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Rongbuk Glacier in the Himalayan Range in southern Tibet is 26 kilometers long and 120 meters thick on average. Two large tributary glaciers ¨C the East and West Rongbuk Glaciers flow into the main glacier. As the Rongbuk Glacier moves north, Rongbuk Valley is formed.  (Photo: Global Times)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/02/content_12572564.htm

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Apart from the threat of rising sea level, China’s Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, or “the Roof of the World” where local temperatures have risen by 1.1C over the past 20 years, will also witness glacier melting. As the plateau is the source of seven major Asian rivers affecting more than 2 billion people, and agricultural and industrial production, hydropower generation and water transportation depending on it, the outcome would be disastrous if large-scale glacier melting occurs. (Source: China Daily)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/10/content_12620823.htm

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Two foreign tourists take pictures in front of the Karola glacier, which situates at the boundary betweent the Nagarze county and the Gyangze county of southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region, Jan. 14, 2009. The glacier tongue locates at an altitude of 5,560 meters, extending from the top to the roadside. (Xinhua Photo)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/15/content_10664276.htm

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Photo shows a view of the Midui Glacier, southeastern Tibet’s Nyingchi Prefecture.(Photo Source: chinatibetnews.com)
Note:   The glacier is contaminated with pollutants.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/17/content_12246423.htm

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http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-12/18/content_12665622.htm

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Koko Nor lake (Qinghai lake)

Prior to the 1960s, 108 freshwater rivers emptied into the lake. As of 2003, 85 % of the river mouths have dried up, including the lake’s largest tributary, the Buha River.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koko_Nor

_oOo_

BEIJING, Jan. 6,2010 (Xinhuanet) — The Dargo Glacier, known as China’s most beautiful colorful one, in Ngawa Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, will open to visitors later this year.

Note:  Glaciers are almost gone even though it is in the winter month. 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2010-01/06/content_12763540.htm

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Sichuan province:  Population = 87.3 millions

Provincial capital chengdu: Population = 11 millions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu

Chongqing municipality, a short distance east of Chengdu:  Population = 33 millions.  Heavy industrial area.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chongqing

Gansu province: Population = 31 millions.  High concentration of chemical industries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gansu

Provincial capital Lanzhou on the banks of Yellow River (HuangHe): Population = 3.1 millions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanzhou

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Note: The Yellow River flows through downtown area of the city of Lanchou, Gansu.  This kind of metropolitan serves as a great heat source that helps thaw the permafrost and glaciers surrounding it: Qinghai-Tibet plateau’s glaciers.

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Note:  Not much Glaciers are left on these mountains in Yunnan province.  China’s economic ‘miracle’ has helped glaciers disappeared quickly!

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Yunnan province: Population = 45 millions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yunnan

Provincial capital Kunming: Population = 7 millions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kunming

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Note: Koko Nor (Blue Lake in Mongolian) in 1994, three smaller lakes has formed as water surface retreated 11.7%.

Qinghai province: Population = 5.2 milions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai

Provincial capital Xining: Population = 2.3 millions living next to Koko Nor Lake.

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Note: The photo shows Xining at night.  This is a great heat source that helps thaw the permafrost and melt the glaciers in Qinghai plateau.

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Xining City at night

Note:  Before Chinese communists invaded Tibet in 1959, Xinning and lake Koko Nor are  almost ‘no man land’ region.  This area was a kind of holy land for Buddhist pilgrimages.  But today, it is basically no difference from Hongkong or Newyork cities. 

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Global Warming 101

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Global Warning

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Global Warming: Point of No Return

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James Lovelock and Nuclear Energy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOaDY13bI84&feature=related

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Nuclear Plant Breakdown _National Geographic

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT2uuHq5AN0&NR=1&feature=fvwp

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Yuyin, Green Watershed (China) talks about nuclear energy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na6sJoTc4v8&feature=related

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[nature_science] Chinese Rockets – Episode 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRHUBAlnNFs&feature=related

[nature_science] Inside Chinese Nuclear Power Station 2/2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAHhCzUZTG0&feature=related

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Global warming has reached far beyond the point of no return, at least as far as Asia continent is concerned.

Melting Himalayas – India

Note:  In the video clip, Indian scientist predicts that in the next two decades (roughly by 2030-2040) Himalaya’s glaciers will be melted down almost completely.  When it happens, China and India will experience devastating droughts, famines, large human migration to remaining water source regions.  And dieoff is probably inevitable! 

A-must-see video clip

Melting Himalayas – India

and,

Melting Himalayan glaciers

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